Why it’s delusional to think a Democrat could win the next governor’s race in South Dakota

Billie Sutton, during his run for governor of South Dakota in 2018. (Courtesy of Kevin Woster)

Sometimes a guy gets so desperate for a little balance in South Dakota politics he comes up with some delusional ideas.

Like my idea on how Billie Sutton could be governor.

Sutton, I might remind you, is a Democrat. And a Democrat hasn’t been elected governor in South Dakota since just this side of the Pleistocene era or, more specifically, 1974.

Don’t get me wrong, Sutton is a really good candidate, even with a D after his name. And the rancher, banker, former saddle-bronc rider and state senator from Burke came close to the governor’s chair in 2018, when he lost to Republican Kristi Noem by just three percentage points.

That’s a miraculously close statewide finish for a Democrat in South Dakota these days. And it’s likely Sutton would have beaten Noem without help from John Thune and his team and other Republicans in South Dakota.

But there were some GOP visitors from out of state who helped make the difference, including President Trump. He flew into Sioux Falls in early September of 2018 for a Noem fundraiser.

South Carolina Sen. Lindsay Graham also made a late-campaign stop for Noem in South Dakota. And so did Mike Pence.

With all that help, Noem pulled out the win.

Now, seven years later, I think we’re even more conservative than we were in 2018. More, well, Trumpish. And even less likely to elect a Democrat to any statewide office.

So, it would be a harder run for Sutton, if he were interested. And last time I talked to him, he wasn’t. But his name still comes up regularly, and wistfully, when Democrats and others hoping for a change in state leadership think about possibilities.

That’s how I ended up gleefully considering a path to the governor’s office for Sutton. And the idea all hinged on Toby Doeden.

“If Toby Doeden won the Republican primary, Billie Sutton could beat Doeden in the general,” I said confidently over coffee with a couple of friends. I repeated it to another friend, a traditional South Dakota conservative, a week or so later.

“If Dusty Johnson wins the primary, Billie wouldn’t have a chance,” I said. “Larry Rhoden? Well, I think Billie would have a chance, but probably not win. But Doeden? Yeah, Billie would beat Doeden.”

I didn’t mention Jon Hansen, a Republican state lawmaker and lawyer from Dell Rapids who is in the race. I guess I think his chances of winning the primary are so slim (no offense, Jon) he didn’t figure into my speculation.

Rhoden, of course, is a credible Republican candidate who happens to be the governor now, having stepped up from his lieutenant governor’s spot when Noem left in January for the Trump administration. Rhoden hasn’t made his campaign official quite yet, but he will.

And as the weeks and months have passed, Rhoden has looked more and more gubernatorial.

Doeden is the wild card. The Aberdeen businessman with a history of fringe ideas has personal wealth to spend, and has already been spending it on TV ads and mailers that are professional, smartly tailored to highlight Trump and likely to be effective among Republican primary voters.

In a limited-turnout primary, a higher percent of GOP voters tend to lean to the right of where most South Dakota Republicans are, or used to be, at least.

Beyond that, Doeden has been managing to come off as reasonable, which has been a surprise to me. He slips sometimes, like when he called Dusty Johnson evil. Which was, well, crazy talk.

Johnson is a 48-year-old fourth-term congressman who previously served as chief of staff to Gov. Dennis Daugaard and before that was twice elected to the state Public Utilities Commission. A proven winner in six statewide elections, he’s running for governor now, of course, and he has a nice pile of campaign cash. I’d have to call him the favorite.

Republican candidate spends $187,000 on TV ads so far, a year before SD’s primary election

Oh, and he’s not evil, by the way. You can disagree with Johnson’s politics or rhetoric or how he votes, but it’s ludicrous in a mean-spirited sort of way to call him evil.

Yet Doeden told KELO TV reporter Dan Santella: “I’m light. I’m good. Dusty’s dark. Dusty’s evil. Those are going to be the two choices.”

If I’d been Santella, I might have asked: “Um, are you being serious right now?”

First, primary voters will almost certainly have more than two choices. Beyond that, a candidate who calls another candidate “evil” seems like a very beatable candidate, if not necessarily in a primary certainly in a general election.

At least that’s what I was thinking when I arrived at my Doeden-beats-Johnson, Sutton-beats-Doeden equation. But after feeling good for a few days, I remembered something. Someone, actually: Trump.

Doeden has been banging the pro-Trump drum loudly and pretty smartly since he started his campaign. And if Doeden were to beat Johnson, it’s obvious that Trump would endorse Doeden. He’s certainly not going to stand by and watch a Democrat win that seat. If needed, he’d likely show up here and campaign.

So much for my Sutton formula. The Trump formula is what matters, especially in the GOP primary but probably even in the general.

Trump got 61.53% of the general election vote in South Dakota in 2016 and 61.77% in 2020. Then he lied about the 2020 election results and inspired an attack on the nation’s Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Did that reduce his win percentage here in South Dakota in 2024? No, it went up to 63.43%.

That’s Trump. And that’s the powerful hold he has on his supporters.

So much for my delusional hopes for balance in our politics.