From left, U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, Gov. Larry Rhoden, Attorney General Marty Jackley, Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden and state House Speaker Jon Hansen. (South Dakota Searchlight photos)
It may seem a little early to start wondering about who’s likely to be elected governor of South Dakota in November of 2026. However, November is not the date that’s important. Just more than a year from now, in June 2026, the Republican Party will have its primary election to decide on a gubernatorial candidate. Since Democrats are close to a nonentity in this state, it’s the GOP primary that will likely decide the next governor of South Dakota.
It was with that timing in mind that South Dakota News Watch, in cooperation with the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota, conducted a poll of 500 registered Republican voters and asked them who they supported for governor.
A News Watch story accompanying the poll listed some important factors for the success of the candidates: the money they can raise, their name recognition and their standing in the state’s geographic regions. What it didn’t mention was perhaps the most important factor of all: who’s the most likely to get the endorsement of President Donald Trump.
Hold on, you might say. Why does Donald Trump care who fills the governor’s office in South Dakota? Maybe he doesn’t, but history tells us he loves to make endorsements. Already for 2026 he has offered endorsements in races elsewhere for the U.S. Senate and House, state legislative races and governorships.
President Donald Trump speaks during a rally Sept. 8, 2023, at The Monument in Rapid City. (Seth Tupper/South Dakota Searchlight)
The News Watch poll found Trump with a 68% favorability rating among Republicans in South Dakota, a far better rating than any of the candidates likely to run in the GOP primary. Consequently, his endorsement would carry some weight. Just as it may not be too soon to poll Republicans on their choice for the next governor, it’s not too soon to handicap which candidate might have the best shot at getting a thumbs-up from Trump.
The highest finisher in the poll was U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson with 28% followed by Gov. Larry Rhoden with 27%, Attorney General Marty Jackley with 18%, Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden with 4% and state Speaker of the House Jon Hansen with 2%. Hansen is the only one so far to announce that he’s running for the nomination, though there is plenty of speculation about the intentions of the others.
Johnson, the marginal leader in the poll, also finds himself in the closest proximity to the White House. During Trump’s second term he has embraced the president’s policies, going so far as to introduce legislation that would allow Trump to purchase the Panama Canal. He’s even praised the government-cutting efforts of Elon Musk’s DOGE, while admitting that the whole thing could be handled better.
Rhoden, like Johnson, has been full of praise for the president’s policies. Rhoden’s connection to Kristi Noem, his predecessor and Trump’s secretary of Homeland Security, may be valuable if the president chooses to endorse. However, you never know when the mercurial Trump may wake up angry. He went through three Homeland Security secretaries in his first term. While he has been supportive of the president, Rhoden has a long history in South Dakota politics that may be tainted by the current GOP philosophy that scorns bipartisanship.
Jackley has to wonder what a life in public service has been worth politically, garnering just 18% support in the poll. Serving as attorney general twice and running for governor once before has to be worth more than that. Jackley, too, has ingratiated himself to Trump, going so far as to visit Mar-a-Lago to consult with the president-elect on the politicization of the Justice Department. Known for his law and order stance in South Dakota, it must be galling for Jackley to consider the blanket pardons Trump handed out to the Jan. 6 insurrectionists.
GET THE MORNING HEADLINES.
At the bottom of the poll is the only official candidate, state Rep. Jon Hansen of Dell Rapids. His low finish in the poll is an indication that hard work in the Legislature doesn’t necessarily result in name recognition within the party. Fortunately for Hansen, he has another legislative session as speaker of the House in which to make his mark. A leader in the state’s anti-abortion and property rights efforts, he’ll need to drum up a Trumpian issue to keep his name in the news and enhance his chances of getting an endorsement.
Finishing ahead of Hansen in the poll was Doeden. He’s never held elective office but his influence can be felt in the Legislature. His Dakota First Action PAC helped elect a number of populist Republican candidates who had to notch primary wins against incumbents to get to Pierre. Doeden is known for his prolific videos that often point out what’s wrong with the members of his own party. He has something brewing, announcing an event for May 28.
Of all these candidates, Doeden is the most Trump-like with his wealth and his disdain for the status quo. He now has a cadre of lawmakers beholden to his generosity who can carry his message to far-right members of the party. That wing of the party is known for getting out the vote during primaries. As Republicans have shown in recent elections, they have a penchant for voting for angry rich guys.
Race for South Dakota governor could be a race for Trump’s favor
From left, U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, Gov. Larry Rhoden, Attorney General Marty Jackley, Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden and state House Speaker Jon Hansen. (South Dakota Searchlight photos)
It may seem a little early to start wondering about who’s likely to be elected governor of South Dakota in November of 2026. However, November is not the date that’s important. Just more than a year from now, in June 2026, the Republican Party will have its primary election to decide on a gubernatorial candidate. Since Democrats are close to a nonentity in this state, it’s the GOP primary that will likely decide the next governor of South Dakota.
It was with that timing in mind that South Dakota News Watch, in cooperation with the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota, conducted a poll of 500 registered Republican voters and asked them who they supported for governor.
A News Watch story accompanying the poll listed some important factors for the success of the candidates: the money they can raise, their name recognition and their standing in the state’s geographic regions. What it didn’t mention was perhaps the most important factor of all: who’s the most likely to get the endorsement of President Donald Trump.
Hold on, you might say. Why does Donald Trump care who fills the governor’s office in South Dakota? Maybe he doesn’t, but history tells us he loves to make endorsements. Already for 2026 he has offered endorsements in races elsewhere for the U.S. Senate and House, state legislative races and governorships.
The News Watch poll found Trump with a 68% favorability rating among Republicans in South Dakota, a far better rating than any of the candidates likely to run in the GOP primary. Consequently, his endorsement would carry some weight. Just as it may not be too soon to poll Republicans on their choice for the next governor, it’s not too soon to handicap which candidate might have the best shot at getting a thumbs-up from Trump.
The highest finisher in the poll was U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson with 28% followed by Gov. Larry Rhoden with 27%, Attorney General Marty Jackley with 18%, Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden with 4% and state Speaker of the House Jon Hansen with 2%. Hansen is the only one so far to announce that he’s running for the nomination, though there is plenty of speculation about the intentions of the others.
Johnson, the marginal leader in the poll, also finds himself in the closest proximity to the White House. During Trump’s second term he has embraced the president’s policies, going so far as to introduce legislation that would allow Trump to purchase the Panama Canal. He’s even praised the government-cutting efforts of Elon Musk’s DOGE, while admitting that the whole thing could be handled better.
Rhoden, like Johnson, has been full of praise for the president’s policies. Rhoden’s connection to Kristi Noem, his predecessor and Trump’s secretary of Homeland Security, may be valuable if the president chooses to endorse. However, you never know when the mercurial Trump may wake up angry. He went through three Homeland Security secretaries in his first term. While he has been supportive of the president, Rhoden has a long history in South Dakota politics that may be tainted by the current GOP philosophy that scorns bipartisanship.
Jackley has to wonder what a life in public service has been worth politically, garnering just 18% support in the poll. Serving as attorney general twice and running for governor once before has to be worth more than that. Jackley, too, has ingratiated himself to Trump, going so far as to visit Mar-a-Lago to consult with the president-elect on the politicization of the Justice Department. Known for his law and order stance in South Dakota, it must be galling for Jackley to consider the blanket pardons Trump handed out to the Jan. 6 insurrectionists.
GET THE MORNING HEADLINES.
At the bottom of the poll is the only official candidate, state Rep. Jon Hansen of Dell Rapids. His low finish in the poll is an indication that hard work in the Legislature doesn’t necessarily result in name recognition within the party. Fortunately for Hansen, he has another legislative session as speaker of the House in which to make his mark. A leader in the state’s anti-abortion and property rights efforts, he’ll need to drum up a Trumpian issue to keep his name in the news and enhance his chances of getting an endorsement.
Finishing ahead of Hansen in the poll was Doeden. He’s never held elective office but his influence can be felt in the Legislature. His Dakota First Action PAC helped elect a number of populist Republican candidates who had to notch primary wins against incumbents to get to Pierre. Doeden is known for his prolific videos that often point out what’s wrong with the members of his own party. He has something brewing, announcing an event for May 28.
Of all these candidates, Doeden is the most Trump-like with his wealth and his disdain for the status quo. He now has a cadre of lawmakers beholden to his generosity who can carry his message to far-right members of the party. That wing of the party is known for getting out the vote during primaries. As Republicans have shown in recent elections, they have a penchant for voting for angry rich guys.
Finance.