UNDATED – South Dakota’s urban centers are expected to fuel most of the state’s job growth through 2032, with rural areas falling behind and several industries projected to shrink.
According to new projections from the state Department of Labor and Regulation, employment in the Sioux Falls metro area is forecast to reach 195,612 by 2032—a 9.3 percent increase from 2022. The Rapid City metro is expected to grow by 7.6 percent, reaching 85,450 jobs.
By comparison, the rest of the state—the “Balance of State” region—is projected to grow by only 6.6 percent, totaling 269,502 jobs by 2032. These figures suggest a continued urbanization of South Dakota’s labor force.
The share of total state employment in Sioux Falls is expected to grow from 35.0 percent in 2022 to 35.5 percent by 2032. Rapid City will hold steady at 15.5 percent. Meanwhile, the rural share will fall from 49.5 percent to 48.9 percent.
“Employment in the Sioux Falls MSA accounted for 35.0 percent of the state’s employment in 2022. That ratio will rise just slightly (to 35.5 percent) by 2032, according to the projections.
The Rapid City MSA made up 15.5 percent of the state’s employment in 2022. That ratio is projected to hold steady until 2032. Meanwhile, 49.5 percent of the state’s workers were in the BOS area in 2022. This is projected to decline slightly to 48.9 percent by 2032,” the Department of Labor report said.
Healthcare and service industries will lead the job gains in metro areas. In Sioux Falls, hospitals are expected to add 2,637 jobs, ambulatory care services 1,269, professional services 1,265, and food service 1,213. In Rapid City, hospitals will add 701 positions, followed by food service (+655), ambulatory care (+575), and professional services (+417).
In rural South Dakota, food services (+1,563), hospitals (+1,370), and education (+1,005) will be the top growth sectors.
But while most sectors will see growth, six industries are projected to lose jobs statewide. Publishing—such as newspapers and magazines—is expected to see the sharpest decline, dropping 15.2 percent (136 jobs). Printing and related services will fall 4.7 percent, paper manufacturing 2.9 percent, telecommunications 2.9 percent, and broadcasting 2.3 percent.
These losses reflect the shift toward digital media and automation. The state report attributes the publishing decline to the rise of smartphones and tablets, with 90 percent of South Dakota households owning at least one smart device. Local media consolidation is also a factor. National firms have bought out smaller outlets, cutting local staff.
The sixth declining sector—wholesale trade agents and brokers—is expected to drop just 1.5 percent, or seven jobs, mainly due to increased automation.
Updated every two years, these projections offer a snapshot of how jobs in South Dakota may shift through the decade. Full data is available at dlr.sd.gov.
