The recently passed “One Big Beautiful Bill” was promoted as the largest middle-class tax cut in history. The price tag: $5 trillion. The pitch: permanent, revolutionary relief for working families. The reality: a master class in tax theater.
The first act of this legislative show is a reprise of the 2017 tax law, which included temporary cuts scheduled to expire in 2025. This bill makes the current tax rates permanent rather than reverting to higher, pre-2017 rates. No one faces a tax increase next year, but no one receives a genuine new cut. The real headline should be “taxes remain unchanged, preventing a broad tax hike.”
The bill’s second act includes a lineup of “relief” provisions touted as game-changers. These included “Trump Accounts” for babies, auto loan interest deductions, and “no taxes” on tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits. Despite the marketing, the complexities and loopholes around each of these provisions mean that many taxpayers will see little or no relief.
The new “Trump Account” savings vehicles for children are more restrictive and difficult to use than 529 college plans. The $1,000 starter gift for newborns is unlikely to benefit children in families with acute financial needs.
The “no taxes” on tips is a temporary measure, expiring in 2028, and applies only to federal income tax. It excludes many service workers—those who do not earn enough to pay federal income tax or who fail to qualify under the bill’s strict definitions. For those who do qualify, the relief is capped at $25,000 in tips per year and phases out at higher incomes. Tips automatically added to a diner’s bill are not covered.
The “no taxes” on overtime, which also expires in 2028, is a federal income tax deduction, capped at $12,500 per year for single filers and subject to phaseout.
Neither of these changes provide relief from payroll taxes—the largest tax burden for 90% of Americans, according to the Cato Institute—or from state taxes.
For Social Security recipients, the bill introduces a “senior deduction” of roughly $6,000 for individuals and $12,000 for couples that expires in 2028. According to The Washington Post and Social Security Administration data, this raises the share of recipients owing no federal tax on benefits from 44% to approximately 88%. Seniors with over $75,000 (single) and $150,000 (couples) will continue to pay tax on a portion of their benefits. The partial exemption, while significant for low-income retirees, falls far short of the blanket promises made by politicians.
The auto loan interest deduction, marketed as middle-class relief, primarily benefits luxury car buyers. Reaching the $10,000 cap requires $100,000-plus loans, achieved by only 1% of buyers. Typical families financing $35,000 vehicles save $300-$500 annually, while luxury buyers financing $120,000-plus vehicles claim $1,500-$2,400. Income phase-outs favor affluent professionals.
Americans already spend billions of hours and hundreds of billions of dollars complying with the complex tax code. This new bill adds more layers, qualifications, and exclusions, almost a guarantee of missed benefits and compliance mistakes.
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” freezes tax rates and packages marginal extras with maximum marketing. The only broad benefit is avoiding a scheduled tax increase. The remaining provisions that promised sweeping change deliver far less than advertised. With no tax hike and no transformative cut, the law is at best a draw.
This is just one more example of political marketing that frames maintenance as reform, playing on fears of loss and hopes for gain. It is a reminder to treat campaign-style tax cut claims with skepticism. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” is best understood as “One Big Beautiful Bluff.” For most Americans, the result is taxes and complexity as usual.