AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the Minnesota House special election

FILE - People attend a candlelight vigil for former House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark, who were fatally shot, at the state Capitol, June 18, 2025, in St. Paul, Minn. (AP Photo/Nikolas Liepins, File)
FILE - People attend a candlelight vigil for former House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark, who were fatally shot, at the state Capitol, June 18, 2025, in St. Paul, Minn. (AP Photo/Nikolas Liepins, File)
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Control of the Minnesota House of Representatives will once again be at stake Tuesday in a special election to replace Melissa Hortman, the former Democratic state House speaker who was slain along with her husband at their home in June. The election takes place three months after the fatal shootings. The shooting suspect faces federal and state murder charges that could result in the federal death penalty.  Republicans now hold a 67-66 edge in the state House. If Democrats hold Hortman’s seat in the heavily Democratic district, the chamber will once again be tied at 67 seats.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Control of the Minnesota House of Representatives will once again be at stake Tuesday in a special election to replace Melissa Hortman, the former Democratic state House speaker who was slain along with her husband at their home in June.

The election takes place three months after the killings, as the accused gunman faces both federal and state murder charges that could result in the federal death penalty. The suspect is also charged with the attempted murders of a Democratic state senator and his wife.

Republicans now hold a 67-66 seat edge in the state House. If Democrats hold Hortman’s seat in the heavily Democratic district, the chamber will once again be tied at 67-67. A Democratic vacancy earlier in the year prompted a Republican attempt to take control of the legislative body, but a boycott by House Democrats, led by Hortman, eventually resulted in a power-sharing agreement between the two parties.

Running to replace Hortman are Democrat Xp Lee, a former Brooklyn Park City Council member, and Republican Ruth Bittner, a real estate agent seeking her first elected office.

Backed by the state party, Lee won the Aug. 12 Democratic primary with 59% of the vote over Brooklyn Park City Council member Christian Eriksen and Erickson Saye, an associate attorney in the Hennepin County attorney’s office. Bittner was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Hortman won reelection to the seat in November with 63% of the vote. Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried the district with 62% of the vote, far better than the 51% she received statewide in the contest against Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.

The district includes the communities of Brooklyn Park and Champlin in Hennepin County and Coon Rapids in Anoka County. Democrats have the biggest advantage in Brooklyn Park, where both Harris and Hortman received about 64% of the vote. Champlin is the most competitive. Harris and Hortman both won there with roughly 52% of the vote.

Brooklyn Park has by far the largest presence in District 34B, comprising 11 of the district’s 14 precincts and about 85% of the district’s total vote. Two precincts are based in Coon Rapids and one in Champlin.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There are no automatic recounts for state legislative races in Minnesota. A losing candidate may request a publicly funded recount if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total vote. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here’s a look at what to expect Tuesday:

The special election for state House District 34B will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, which is 9 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare a winner in the state House special election.

Any voter registered in state House District 34B may participate in the special election.

There were nearly 29,000 voters registered in House District 34B in the 2024 general election. Turnout was about 75% of registered voters in the 2024 general election and about 62% in 2022. About 44% of ballots in 2024 were cast before Election Day, compared with about 30% in the 2022 midterm elections.

As of Thursday, 812 ballots had been cast before Election Day, 95% of which came from Hennepin County. The remainder came from Anoka County.

In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results in District 34B at 11:29 p.m. ET. The tabulation ended for the night at 3:49 a.m. ET with more than 99% of total votes counted.

As of Tuesday, there will be 413 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2025 election at https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2025/.