2026 GOP primary field could include Gov. Rhoden, AG Jackley, Congressman Johnson, House Speaker Jon Hansen & Toby Doeden
PIERRE, S.D. – The 2026 GOP primary race for governor subtly kicked off last month with a letter that seemed to fly under the radar but landed with an unmistakable ripple.
Gov. Larry Rhoden made headlines when he publicly offered a slice of Black Hills land for a national heroes garden envisioned by President Donald Trump — a gesture seemingly of generosity rather than a political maneuver. But to those tuned in to the power dynamics of South Dakota’s Republican circle, it wasn’t so simple.
Rather, some saw it as political gamesmanship meant to capitalize on work to bring the national site to the Mount Rushmore area already underway by a potential challenger to Rhoden if he runs in 2026: Congressman Dusty Johnson.
Days later, Johnson went to social media to invite the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins to spend time on a South Dakota ranch. A month earlier, Rhoden posted on Facebook and X – formerly Twitter – that during a visit to Washington, D.C., he’d invited Rollins to the South Dakota Agriculture Summit.
Tit for tat?
For both men, each considering or planning runs for governor next year, the stakes are high: each is vying for Trump’s coveted endorsement, a nod that could tip the balance in what’s already shaping up to be a fierce race for the state’s top office.
While no one has formally declared a candidacy in the 2026 gubernatorial election, the field could include Rhoden, Johnson and South Dakota Attorney General Marty Jackley.
Johnson and Jackley have long been considered likely candidates in the 2026 gubernatorial contest. And the early departure of former Gov. Kristi Noem, who left in January to become Trump’s Homeland Security secretary, shouldered Rhoden into the race. All three are considered friendly with one another in the state GOP, but it’s also created jockeying among the potential candidates.
Others considered further to the right than that trio are also mulling runs, including Toby Doeden and House Speaker Jon Hansen. A wealthy Aberdeen businessman turned political influencer, Doeden is credited with using his financial might to swing party leadership dynamics in the state Legislature, supporting winning candidates in the 2024 GOP primary elections. Benefiting from Doeden-backed efforts in that election, Hansen is a leader in the anti-abortion activism community who comes with high prominence among social conservatives.
Neither of them have confirmed runs but are openly considering the prospect.
“I’d be lying if I told you I haven’t had a lot of people – a lot of prominent people – that want me to run for governor,” Doeden said during a recent interview with The Dakota Scout. “I’m weighing my options and praying with my family to find the best way for me to continue to help South Dakota.”
More candidates could benefit populists
Political observers say it’s unlikely all five put their names on the 2026 gubernatorial ballot. That’s because if Jackley, Johnson and Rhoden decide to vie for the same primary nomination, they’ll split votes of more moderate GOP primary voters, opening the door for a populist candidate — Hansen or Doeden — to move into the Governor’s Mansion.
But should both Hansen and Doeden run, that could benefit Johnson, Jackley or Rhoden.
Doeden said the new brand of Republicans now in control of the state Legislature and the South Dakota Republican Party need to be unified behind one candidate.
“What is important is that the conservative movement has to band together and be 100 percent together. Because if there are any factions that branch off … you’re gonna see the liberals and establishment Republicans waiting in the bushes for us to kill each other,” Doeden said.
Jon Schaff, a political science professor at Northern State University in Aberdeen, said fundraising will be a detriment for Rhoden, who’s getting a late start in the fundraising game.
But should he overcome or disregard that setback and enter the race, Schaff predicts it’d be at Jackley or Johnson’s expense.
“Especially if Rhoden gets in the race, the so-called established Republicans end up being divided three different ways, and then a Hansen would be the most likely.”
“It either benefits Dusty or it benefits whoever the populist candidate is,” he added.
Allies of both Rhoden and Jackley are cognizant of the dynamics, and the most likely scenario is that Jackley and Rhoden do not run against one another.
Jackley declined to discuss a potential run or when a decision might be coming.
“I continue to receive encouragement to run for governor, from people who want a conservative in the race, but for right now I’m focused on keeping our streets safe and protecting taxpayer dollars,” he said in a statement to The Scout.
Both Rhoden and Johnson are taking similar approaches when responding to questions about their political futures, also acknowledging the possibility while hinting announcements are looming.
“I’m fully committed to my job representing South Dakota in the U.S. House,” Johnson said. “As for future plans, I’m expecting to make that decision over the summer or fall.”
A decision from the governor could come sooner.
“Since the legislative session ended, Sandy and I have been praying about this and having some key conversations with family and trusted friends,” Rhoden told The Scout. “It’s been very rewarding to serve the people of South Dakota as Governor, and truth be told, I’ve been receiving encouragement from people all across South Dakota to keep doing it.
“But for right now, I’m focused on the Open for Opportunity tour and seeing the potential of our great state,” he added. “I’m humbled by all the support, but we are not ready to make a public announcement until this tour is over.”
Hansen is riding momentum after fronting the anti-abortion group Life Defense Fund that helped block Amendment G’s passage last November and being among the Legislature’s most vocal critics of Summit Carbon Solutions’ use of eminent domain in pursuit of a carbon sequestration pipeline project. His decision could be imminent.
“I’ve been honored by many great grassroots patriots from across the state who have asked me to run and indicated their support for me for governor,” the Dell Rapids Republican told The Scout, saying an announcement about his plans will be forthcoming “in the near future.”
“From the fight for private property rights by ending eminent domain for the Green New Deal carbon pipeline boondoggle, to my pro-life leadership in doing what many thought was impossible in defeating the extreme abortion amendment G, to standing for freedom during Covid, to ending woke and restoring common sense, and a lot more, people trust me as a proven fighter who delivers for conservative values and will not back down,” he said.
