Campaign signs in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, in November 2024. (Photo by Makenzie Huber/South Dakota Searchlight)
I don’t have a good track record with political predictions. In 1986, I thought George Mickelson was just a tall lawyer from Brookings. I had no idea he would be South Dakota’s next governor.
In 1996, I covered John Thune’s stop in Pierre on his tour announcing that he was running for the U.S. House. I remember thinking that it was a waste of time because there was no way he could win the primary against Lt. Gov. Carol Hillard. Obviously I was in for another surprise.
During the evening of the last three presidential Election Days, I went to bed believing that my country could never elect Donald Trump. One out of three is pretty bad for a prognosticator.
Despite that woeful record for political predictions, I have one for June’s Republican gubernatorial primary. Here goes (drum roll). The candidate who makes the best use of newspaper advertising will do better than expected.
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That means a front-runner like Gov. Larry Rhoden or U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, by using newspaper advertising wisely, could win by a surprising margin. That means the other candidates who have yet to poll as well — Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden and state Speaker of the House Jon Hansen — with the right newspaper ad campaign, could punch above their weight class, make the race interesting and perhaps lay the groundwork for their next campaign.
Anyone who reads knows that in the last few elections political advertising in newspapers has been little more than an afterthought. Candidates still like to see their name in the paper, but they prefer not to invest in it. They have their minions write glowing letters to the editor, but they would rather spend their money elsewhere. They clog up the airwaves on TV or throw their money into the ether, buying ads on social media.
Honest, this isn’t just the ramblings of a cranky retired newspaperman. The benefits of newspaper advertising are real because of the readers.
By virtue of the fact that they have purchased a subscription to their local newspaper, readers prove that they have money. Money is something that every candidate, even the rich ones, needs. I’m surprised that all the candidates aren’t running small ads already, asking for money or at least steering readers to their websites where they can gather contact information and then really put the bite on them for donations.
Much more important than their wallets is the fact that newspaper readers are voters. Many studies have shown that people who subscribe to their local newspaper take an interest in their community, their state and their nation. Using Susquehanna Polling and Research Inc., the National Newspaper Association Foundation found that 96% of newspaper readers are voters.
Closer to home, research from the South Dakota NewsMedia Association shows that 83% of adults in the state read newspapers online or in print. Of those readers, 85% vote in state, national and local elections. A candidate looking for success in the next election should consider investing in advertising where the voters are, in newspapers.
Candidates often tell us how smart they are, how much they love innovation, how they know how to govern. Well, watch your local newspaper to see which one of them knows how to get elected by spending some of that hard-earned campaign cash where voters are likely to congregate.
Just as candidates are forced to make some decisions in an election year, so are newspaper editors. Some have innovated in recent years. As they saw political advertising dry up, they decided not to be used by political campaigns. Some had the foresight and guts to start charging for letters to the editor that include the endorsement of a candidate. That’s a smart decision. Those letters on the opinion page are nothing more than free political advertising, often cranked out by the very campaigns that have forsaken newspaper advertising.
Another decision facing newspaper editors is what to do with Rhoden’s weekly column. Now that he’s a declared candidate for governor, it’s unfair to his competitors that he should get free space in the newspaper every week.
There may be some editors who argue that a column from the governor of the state is newsworthy. If that’s the case, it’s likely those editors have been too lazy to read what they’re putting in their newspapers.
Since declaring his candidacy, the topics of Rhoden’s columns have included how thankful he is to be the governor; how hard he’s working on the next budget — with a bit of his legislative background thrown in; and how his budget supports student success. That last one is a bit of a stretch given that the budget he worked so hard on didn’t include a funding increase for education.
The governor’s column isn’t news; it’s a way for him to polish his resume in public. Editors should consider putting the column on hiatus until Rhoden is no longer a candidate for office.
Election years are always interesting and this one is shaping up to hold voters’ attention, at least through the primary. Up until then, watch your newspaper to see which of the GOP candidates for governor has the smarts to advertise directly to voters and which editors are actually reading what they put in their newspaper.
